Observed Risk

Observed risk is part of the clean-core v2 methodology.

Why It Matters

FYOS no longer relies on survivability-led primary explanations for downside handling.

Instead, the product uses observed downside evidence where available.

Key Fields

• observed_risk_score
• loss_rate
• downside_percentile_p10
• median_realized_return
• worst_case_proxy

These fields do not guarantee future outcomes. They provide conservative downside context anchored to observed or bounded historical support.

Coverage Semantics

Observed-risk coverage is stronger in some segments than others.

That is why FYOS may expose:

• primary-grade rows
• bounded-grade rows
• insufficient-history rows

Bounded-grade rows remain usable, but they must not be treated as equal-authority signals relative to primary-grade rows.