How To Read Reality

The FYOS Reality surface is an evidence layer, not a promise layer.

What Reality Is

Reality shows:

• Predicted vs realized outcome comparisons
• Historical evidence of model accuracy
• Error profiles across cohorts
• Reliability grades for trust assessment

Reality answers the question:

"How has the model performed historically, and what does that suggest about confidence levels?"

What Reality Is Not

Reality is not:

• A guarantee of future accuracy
• A promise that predictions will be correct
• A replacement for careful interpretation
• A blanket endorsement of all opportunities

Reality is an evidence surface — it shows you what happened, not what will happen.

Prediction Snapshot Persistence

FYOS persists prediction snapshots:

• Captures model predictions at specific points in time
• Records the expected outcomes based on model state
• Enables later comparison against realized outcomes

This creates an audit trail for model evaluation.

Realized Outcome Evaluation

When outcomes become observable, FYOS evaluates:

• Realized return vs predicted return
• Prediction error magnitude and direction
• Error patterns across cohorts, exchanges, and time

This evidence feeds back into trust and reliability systems.

Prediction Error Profiling

Error profiling reveals:

• Systematic biases: Does the model consistently over- or under-predict?
• Cohort patterns: Which segments have better accuracy?
• Temporal patterns: Does accuracy vary over time?

Error profiles inform reliability grades and runtime haircuts.

Reliability Grading

Based on accumulated evidence, FYOS assigns reliability grades:

Reliability grades inform:

• Trust-layer confidence
• Runtime haircut levels
• User-facing warnings

How Reality Supports Decisions

Reality helps you understand:

1. Confidence calibration: How much to trust model outputs
2. Segment quality: Which exchanges/assets have better track records
3. Uncertainty bounds: What range of outcomes is realistic
4. Red flags: Where the model has struggled historically

Limitations

Reality has important limitations:

• Past is not future: Historical evidence doesn't guarantee future accuracy
• Regime changes: Market conditions can shift
• Coverage gaps: Not all segments have equal evidence
• Sample size: Small-sample cohorts have noisy estimates

Use Reality as context, not as a crystal ball.

Reality vs Trust Layer

Reality provides the evidence. Trust Layer uses it to inform product decisions.

Correct Interpretation

Right way:

• "Reality shows this cohort has historically been accurate within X%"
• "This is evidence, not a guarantee"
• "I should adjust my confidence based on this evidence"

Wrong way:

• "Reality proves the model is always correct"
• "This historical accuracy guarantees future accuracy"
• "I can ignore all other risk factors because Reality looks good"

Evidence-Oriented Philosophy

FYOS is intentionally designed as a pessimistic, evidence-oriented system.

Reality embodies this philosophy:

• Show what actually happened
• Don't hide model limitations
• Don't oversell accuracy
• Let users make informed decisions

Summary

• Reality is an evidence surface, not a promise surface
• It shows predicted vs realized outcomes
• It informs reliability grades and trust
• It has limitations — past is not future
• Use Reality for confidence calibration, not certainty
• Combine with other methodology components for complete interpretation