Edge Reliability
How confident can you be in the projected returns?
Sort by edge reliability score
Definition
Edge Reliability is a confidence score estimating how likely an opportunity is to deliver its projected returns. It combines multiple factors:
- Data quality
- Rate stability
- Historical accuracy
- Current market conditions
Formula
Where each component is normalized 0-1:
- = Data quality score
- = Rate stability score
- = Historical accuracy of similar setups
- = Current market condition factor
Interpretation
| Score | Reliability | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|
| 70-100 | High | High confidence, standard sizing |
| 50-70 | Moderate | Reasonable confidence, consider reduced size |
| 30-50 | Low | Uncertain projections, small positions only |
| 0-30 | Very Low | Data issues or extreme conditions, avoid |
Components
Data Quality
- Completeness of funding rate history
- Consistency of exchange data feeds
- Presence of required metrics
Rate Stability
- Low volatility in recent rates
- Consistent funding intervals
- No anomalous rate spikes
Historical Accuracy
- How well past projections matched outcomes
- Based on similar market conditions
- Exchange-specific accuracy tracking
Market Conditions
- Overall market volatility
- Correlation with BTC/ETH
- Proximity to major events
Use in Decision Making
Combine edge reliability with clean-core adjusted return:
| Adjusted Return View | Edge Reliability | Action |
|---|---|---|
| High | High | Strong opportunity |
| High | Low | Proceed with caution |
| Low | High | May not be worth it |
| Low | Low | Avoid |
Related Metrics
- Deprecated Survivable APR — Historical bridge only
- Half-life — Rate persistence
- Crowding Risk — Competition level